Brazil opened the polls Sunday for a presidential election that is at once a verdict on an incumbent, a test of a political dynasty and a decision about how Latin America’s largest economy should navigate an increasingly divided world.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term. His leading challenger is 45-year-old Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Both enter election day with a plausible path to victory, although the race may not be settled immediately.
Under Brazil’s rules, a presidential candidate must receive more than 50% of valid votes to win in the first round. If nobody reaches that mark, the top two candidates advance to a runoff on October 25. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court confirms that the October 4 vote also covers governors, senators and federal, state and district legislators.
A familiar rivalry with a new Bolsonaro
Lula and the Bolsonaro family have defined Brazil’s political divide for years. Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 by about 2.1 million votes, a margin of just under two percentage points. Four years later, the former president is not on the ballot. His son is trying to inherit the movement—and the electorate—that carried him to power.
The Associated Press reports that Lula is competing in his seventh presidential election. A victory would give him a fourth term, following two terms from 2003 to 2010 and his current term. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, is making his first run for the presidency after serving in the Senate.
Ten other presidential candidates are also on the ballot, but polling and campaign attention have centered overwhelmingly on Lula and Bolsonaro. Reuters described the likely runoff matchup as roughly even, while noting that each leading candidate is rejected by about half the electorate—a sign that the winner could take office after another extraordinarily close and polarizing contest.
Trump is part of the argument
The campaign has stretched well beyond Brazil’s borders. Lula has warned about foreign pressure after the Trump administration imposed steep tariffs on Brazilian exports and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice involved in the case that led to Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction for plotting a coup. Washington has rejected accusations that it is interfering in the election.
Flávio Bolsonaro has cultivated ties with Trump’s political movement, and Trump has hosted and praised him, although the U.S. president has not issued a formal endorsement. The relationship has turned the election into a broader strategic choice: Lula has deepened Brazil’s ties with China, while Bolsonaro presents himself as the candidate more closely aligned with Trump and the political right gaining ground elsewhere in Latin America.
That foreign-policy divide matters because Brazil is not only the region’s largest economy. It is a major producer of food, oil and critical minerals, a central member of the BRICS group and an influential voice in climate negotiations. Decisions made in Brasília can ripple through commodity markets and diplomatic blocs far beyond South America.
The domestic stakes are even larger
For most voters, however, the sharper questions are closer to home: crime, jobs, prices, public services and the government’s finances. Reuters reports that Brazil’s public debt has climbed above 82% of gross domestic product, while economists surveyed by the wire service expect growth of about 2% this year and 2.3% next year.
Organized crime has also become a defining campaign issue. Bolsonaro has emphasized a tougher security agenda, while Lula has argued for federal coordination and social investment alongside enforcement. The candidates’ competing approaches reflect a wider dispute over the balance between state power, civil liberties and the economic conditions that allow criminal groups to recruit and expand.
Both campaigns have also been forced to answer questions surrounding investigations. Flávio Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing in a money-laundering investigation connected to the failed Banco Master, while one of Lula’s sons has denied influence-peddling allegations. Neither matter has produced a conviction against the presidential candidates themselves, but the cases have reinforced public distrust in a race already shaped by the elder Bolsonaro’s imprisonment.
Brazil is choosing far more than a president
Sunday’s election will reshape nearly every level of national politics. Voters are filling all 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats and 27 governorships. That means the next president’s ability to govern may depend as much on the congressional and state results as on the presidential tally.
Brazil’s fragmented party system usually requires presidents to build broad coalitions to pass budgets and legislation. A president elected narrowly could still face a hostile or splintered Congress, making the down-ballot results crucial to everything from economic policy and environmental enforcement to public security and foreign affairs.
What happens next
Voting is scheduled nationwide from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, according to the electoral court. Brazil’s electronic voting system typically allows results to emerge quickly after polls close, but official totals—not campaign declarations or social-media claims—will determine whether the country has chosen a president or is headed to three more weeks of campaigning.
If either Lula or Bolsonaro clears the first-round threshold, Brazil will have an immediate winner. If neither does, the October 25 runoff will become a direct contest between two political projects: Lula’s effort to extend his long and improbable career, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s bid to return his family’s movement to the presidency.
