President Donald Trump is spending the final four weeks before the midterm elections asking Republicans to treat November 3 as if his own name were on the ballot. A new national poll shows why that strategy is both powerful and risky.
Trump’s approval rating is holding at 32%, matching the lowest reading of his political career in Reuters/Ipsos polling. Among registered voters, Democrats lead Republicans 44% to 37% on the congressional ballot, according to the survey completed October 5.
The poll does not predict the outcome of individual House or Senate races. But it captures a difficult national environment for Republicans as control of both chambers remains at stake.
Independents and Hispanic voters drive the warning
The most consequential numbers are beneath the topline. Independent registered voters favored Democratic candidates 37% to 21%, although 28% remained undecided. That large uncommitted bloc means the electorate can still move sharply before voting ends.
Hispanic voters showed an even wider shift. Only 24% of Hispanic adults approved of Trump’s performance, Reuters reported—the lowest share measured during either of his presidential terms. Among Hispanic registered voters, 52% planned to vote for Democrats and 26% for Republicans.
That matters because Trump made significant gains with Hispanic voters in 2024, winning nearly half of their votes after taking roughly one-third in 2020. The new findings suggest Republicans may not be able to count on retaining all of those gains.
The cost of living remains the central problem
The Reuters/Ipsos survey found that living costs are voters’ top issue. A separate AP-NORC poll released October 1 points in the same direction: just 17% of U.S. adults approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 26% approved of his management of the economy overall.
AP-NORC also found that 65% of adults blamed Trump’s policies more than outside forces for persistently high prices. About six in 10 Republicans disapproved of his handling of living costs, and roughly half of Americans said they were highly concerned about affording gasoline and food.
The economic pressure reaches directly into the demographic groups most likely to vote in a midterm. Republicans still led among voters age 50 and older in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, but only by 44% to 42%. Their advantage with that group was eight points in December. Among voters younger than 50, Democrats led by 18 points.
Trump took the campaign to Nebraska
Trump confronted those numbers Monday night in Grand Island, Nebraska, where he urged supporters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. During the rally, he announced an executive order expanding access to red-dye diesel, a fuel exempt from some taxes that has generally been restricted to agricultural and other off-road uses.
The policy was tailored to farmers and truckers coping with higher fuel prices. Yet the location itself underscored Republican anxiety: Trump carried Nebraska by more than 20 percentage points in 2024, while the current Senate race between Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn is considered competitive in public polling, Reuters reported.
Republicans are now trying to persuade voters that manufacturing investment and economic growth outweigh the immediate pain of higher prices. Democrats are framing the election as a referendum on affordability, tariffs and the continuing war with Iran.
What the poll can—and cannot—tell us
The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted from September 30 through October 5 using Ipsos’ probability-based KnowledgePanel. It included 4,506 adults and was weighted to reflect national demographics, education, income, region, 2024 vote choice and party identification. The margin of sampling error for the full sample was plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, according to Ipsos’ methodology. Error margins are larger for subgroups such as Hispanic voters and independents.
A national congressional ballot also cannot show which party is ahead in a particular district or state. House control is determined race by race, and Senate contests depend on a much smaller set of state electorates.
Still, the warning is unmistakable. Trump’s approval remains at a career low, Democrats hold a seven-point national ballot advantage, and the voters who could decide close races are focused on prices. Republicans have four weeks to convince them that the current direction is worth preserving.
Sources
- Reuters: Trump approval at record low; Hispanic voters sour on Republicans
- Ipsos: Reuters/Ipsos October survey methodology
- Associated Press: Economic approval reaches a new low
- Reuters: Trump campaigns in Nebraska and expands diesel-tax relief
